Earlier this week, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to maintain interest rates at 0.75%.
Some key points that led to this decision include:
- Uncertainty about the timing and nature of Brexit have continued to generate heightened volatility in UK asset prices.
- Twelve-month CPI inflation fell to 1.7% in August, from 2.1% in July, and is expected to remain slightly below the 2% target in the near term.
- The unemployment rate has been just under 4% since the beginning of this year.
- Annual pay growth has strengthened to the highest rate in over a decade.
- Unit wage cost growth has also risen, to a level above that consistent with meeting the inflation target in the medium term.
What does the future hold? Again it’s largely dependent on Brexit. The Bank predicts that a no-deal Brexit would lead to a fall in the exchange rate, a rise in CPI inflation and slow GDP growth. In this case, they say interest rates could go either up or down.
However the longer that Brexit uncertainty continues, against a backdrop of a weak global economy, the more likely that growth and inflation will slow, keeping interest rates low.
If it starts to look like we’re heading for a smoother Brexit, and assuming some recovery in global growth, it’s likely that some gradual increases in interest rates should be expected to keep inflation to the 2% target.
We’ve been planning for every possible outcome, ensuring we have the right balance between our people and their capacity, and can respond quickly to any changes so that our clients - and importantly their customers - can continue to rely on us to support them no matter what might happen next.
Full minutes of the Bank of England's MPC meeting can be found here: